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Graduate School of Health Sciences / Faculty of Health Sciences >
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Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach
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| Title: | Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach |
| Authors: | Ishikawa, Tomoki Browse this author | | Ohba, Hisateru Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Yokooka, Yuki Browse this author | | Nakamura, Kozo Browse this author | | Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | Forecasting the number of physicians | | Shortage of physician | | Maldistribution | | System dynamics |
| Issue Date: | 27-Aug-2013 |
| Publisher: | Biomed central ltd |
| Journal Title: | Human resources for health |
| Volume: | 11 |
| Start Page: | Page 1 of 10 |
| End Page: | Page 10 of 10 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1186/1478-4491-11-41 |
| Abstract: | Background: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. Method: We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. Result & conclusion: As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008-2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians. |
| Rights: | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/53394 |
| Appears in Collections: | 保健科学院・保健科学研究院 (Graduate School of Health Sciences / Faculty of Health Sciences) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 小笠原 克彦
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