2024-03-28T16:20:28Zhttps://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace-oai/requestoai:eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp:2115/522692022-11-17T02:08:08Zhdl_2115_20045hdl_2115_139Estimation of Predictability with a Newly Derived Index to Quantify Similarity among Ensemble Members1000010554959Yamada, Tomohito J.Koster, Randal D.Kanae, ShinjiroOki, Taikanopen accessEnsemble forecastingModel evaluation/performanceRanking methods510This study reveals the mathematical structure of a statistical index, Ω, that quantifies similarity among ensemble members in a weather forecast. Previous approaches for quantifying predictability estimate separately the phase and shape characteristics of a forecast ensemble. The diagnostic Ω, on the other hand, characterizes the similarity (across ensemble members) of both aspects together with a simple expression. The diagnostic Ω is thus more mathematically versatile than previous indices.American Meteorological Society2007-07engjournal articleVoRhttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/52269https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR3418.10027-06441520-0493AA0074822XMonthly Weather Review135726742687https://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/2115/52269/1/MWR135_2674-2687.pdfapplication/pdf2.03 MB2007-07