2024-02-21T02:07:57Zhttps://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace-oai/requestoai:eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp:2115/797852022-11-17T02:08:08Zhdl_2115_20076hdl_2115_597The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by ageOmori, RyosukeMatsuyama, RyotaNakata, Yukihiko490Among Italy, Spain, and Japan, the age distributions of COVID-19 mortality show only small variation even though the number of deaths per country shows large variation. To understand the determinant for this situation, we constructed a mathematical model describing the transmission dynamics and natural history of COVID-19 and analyzed the dataset of mortality in Italy, Spain, and Japan. We estimated the parameter which describes the age-dependency of susceptibility by fitting the model to reported data, including the effect of change in contact patterns during the epidemics of COVID-19, and the fraction of symptomatic infections. Our study revealed that if the mortality rate or the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases does not depend on age, then unrealistically different age-dependencies of susceptibilities against COVID-19 infections between Italy, Japan, and Spain are required to explain the similar age distribution of mortality but different basic reproduction numbers (R-0). Variation of susceptibility by age itself cannot explain the robust age distribution in mortality by COVID-19 infections in those three countries, however it does suggest that the age-dependencies of (i) the mortality rate and (ii) the fraction of symptomatic infections among all COVID-19 cases determine the age distribution of mortality by COVID-19.Nature ResearchJournal Articlehttp://hdl.handle.net/2115/797852045-2322Scientific reports101166422020-10-06enginfo:doi/10.1038/s41598-020-73777-8none