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A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010

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Title: A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010
Authors: Reiner, R. C. Browse this author
Perkins, T. A. Browse this author
Barker, C. M. Browse this author
Niu, T. Browse this author
Chaves, Luis Fernando Browse this author →ORCID
Ellis, A. M. Browse this author
George, D. B. Browse this author
Le Menach, A. Browse this author
Pulliam, J. R. C. Browse this author
Bisanzio, D. Browse this author
Buckee, C. Browse this author
Chiyaka, C. Browse this author
Cummings, D. A. T. Browse this author
Garcia, A. J. Browse this author
Gatton, M. L. Browse this author
Gething, P. W. Browse this author
Hartley, D. M. Browse this author
Johnston, G. Browse this author
Klein, E. Y. Browse this author
Michael, E. Browse this author
Lindsay, S. W. Browse this author
Lloyd, A. L. Browse this author
Pigott, D. M. Browse this author
Reisen, W. K. Browse this author
Ruktanonchai, N. Browse this author
Singh, B. K. Browse this author
Tatem, A. J. Browse this author
Kitron, U. Browse this author
Hay, S. I. Browse this author
Scott, T. W. Browse this author
Smith, D. L. Browse this author
Keywords: infectious disease dynamics
vector-borne disease
West Nile
Issue Date: 13-Feb-2013
Publisher: Royal Society Publishing
Journal Title: Journal of The Royal Society Interface
Volume: 10
Issue: 81
Start Page: 20120921
Publisher DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2012.0921
PMID: 23407571
Abstract: Mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission originated in the early twentieth century to provide insights into how to most effectively combat malaria. The foundations of the Ross–Macdonald theory were established by 1970. Since then, there has been a growing interest in reducing the public health burden of mosquito-borne pathogens and an expanding use of models to guide their control. To assess how theory has changed to confront evolving public health challenges, we compiled a bibliography of 325 publications from 1970 through 2010 that included at least one mathematical model of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission and then used a 79-part questionnaire to classify each of 388 associated models according to its biological assumptions. As a composite measure to interpret the multidimensional results of our survey, we assigned a numerical value to each model that measured its similarity to 15 core assumptions of the Ross–Macdonald model. Although the analysis illustrated a growing acknowledgement of geographical, ecological and epidemiological complexities in modelling transmission, most models during the past 40 years closely resemble the Ross–Macdonald model. Modern theory would benefit from an expansion around the concepts of heterogeneous mosquito biting, poorly mixed mosquito-host encounters, spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation in the transmission process.
Rights: © 2013 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License
Type: article
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: Luis Fernando CHAVES

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