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Projecting future supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan using system dynamics

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Title: Projecting future supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan using system dynamics
Authors: Morii, Yasuhiro Browse this author
Ishikawa, Tomoki Browse this author
Suzuki, Teppei Browse this author
Tsuji, Shintaro Browse this author
Yamanaka, Masanori Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Yamashina, Hiroko Browse this author
Keywords: Physical therapists
Forecasting
System dynamics modeling
Policy scenario analysis
Healthcare human resource
Issue Date: Jun-2019
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal Title: Health policy and technology
Volume: 8
Issue: 2
Start Page: 118
End Page: 127
Publisher DOI: 10.1016/j.hlpt.2019.05.003
Abstract: Objectives: Japan is the oldest country in the world, and its demand for medical care is expected to increase. Although a clear vision regarding the supply and demand for physical therapy services is necessary, there has been no research that forecasts the supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan. Consensus has not been reached on whether the supply of physical therapists is sufficient. This study projects this supply and demand to provide medical policymakers with basic data. Methods: A system dynamics model was created to predict the number of physical therapists working in hospitals and clinics in Japan from 2014 to 2040. The future demand for physical therapy was estimated using the rehabilitation service utilization data from Open National Database, a publicly available nationwide health claims database. Sufficiency rates (supply/demand) were calculated, and sensitivity analysis was conducted on supply-related parameters. Results: The number of physical therapists was projected to be 1.74 and 2.54 times greater in 2025 and 2040, respectively, than in 2014. The sufficiency rates were 1.72, 2.39, and 3.30 in 2015, 2025, and 2040, respectively. The sensitivity analysis revealed that attrition rates had the greatest effects on sufficiency. Conclusions: Although the current supply appears to be needed, considering the expected increase and uncertainty in medical needs. However, there is a possibility of a future oversupply, especially after 2025, when the rate of increase in demand will lessen. Further studies are required to evaluate the distribution of physical therapists among regions and specialties. (C) 2019 Fellowship of Postgraduate Medicine. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Rights: ©2019. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Type: article (author version)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/78749
Appears in Collections:保健科学院・保健科学研究院 (Graduate School of Health Sciences / Faculty of Health Sciences) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 森井 康博

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