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Tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific since the mid-nineteenth century

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Title: Tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific since the mid-nineteenth century
Authors: Kubota, Hisayuki Browse this author
Matsumoto, Jun Browse this author
Zaiki, Masumi Browse this author
Tsukahara, Togo Browse this author
Mikami, Takehiko Browse this author
Allan, Rob Browse this author
Wilkinson, Clive Browse this author
Wilkinson, Sally Browse this author
Wood, Kevin Browse this author
Mollan, Mark Browse this author
Keywords: Tropical cyclone
Nineteenth century
Western North Pacific
Data rescue
Issue Date: 5-Feb-2021
Publisher: Springer
Journal Title: Climatic Change
Volume: 164
Issue: 3-4
Start Page: 29
Publisher DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-02984-7
Abstract: Tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the western North Pacific (WNP) and TC landfall in Japan are investigated by collecting historical TC track data and meteorological observation data starting from the mid-nineteenth century. Historical TC track data and TC best track data are merged over the WNP from 1884 to 2018. The quality of historical TC data is not sufficient to count the TC numbers over the WNP due to the lack of spatial coverage and different TC criteria before the 1950s. We focus on TC landfall in Japan using a combination of TC track data and meteorological data observed at weather stations and lighthouses from 1877 to 2019. A unified TC definition is applied to obtain equivalent quality during the whole analysis period. We identify lower annual TC landfall numbers during the 1970s to the 2000s and find other periods have more TC landfall numbers including the nineteenth century. No trend in TC landfall number is detected. TC intensity is estimated by an annual power dissipation index (APDI). High APDI periods are found to be around 1900, in the 1910s, from the 1930s to 1960s, and after the 1990s. When we focus on the period from 1977 to 2019, a significant increasing trend of ADPI is seen, and significant northeastward shift of TC landfall location is detected. On the other hand, TC landfall location shifts northeastward and then southwestward in about 100-year interval. European and US ships sailed through East and Southeast Asian waters before the weather station network was established in the late nineteenth century. Then, we focus on TC events in July 1853 observed by the US Naval Japan Expedition of Perry's fleet and August 1863 by a UK Navy ship that participated in two wars in Japan. A TC moved slowly westward over the East China Sea south of the Okinawa Islands from 21 to 25 July 1853. Another TC was detected in the East China Sea on 15-16 August 1863 during the bombardment of Kagoshima in southern Japan. Pressure data are evaluated by comparing the observations made by 10 naval ships in Yokohama, central Japan during 1863-1864. The deviation of each ship pressure data from the 10 ships mean is about 2.7-2.8 hPa.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:理学院・理学研究院 (Graduate School of Science / Faculty of Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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