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Testing the seismic quiescence hypothesis through retrospective trials of alarm-based earthquake prediction in the Kurile-Japan subduction zone

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Title: Testing the seismic quiescence hypothesis through retrospective trials of alarm-based earthquake prediction in the Kurile-Japan subduction zone
Authors: Katsumata, Kei Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Nakatani, Masao Browse this author
Keywords: Earthquake prediction
Seismic quiescence
Kurile-Japan subduction zone
Issue Date: 27-Apr-2021
Publisher: Springer
Journal Title: Earth planets and space
Volume: 73
Issue: 1
Start Page: 100
Publisher DOI: 10.1186/s40623-021-01418-z
Abstract: We make trial binary forecasts for the Kurile-Japan subduction zone for the period 1988-2014 by hypothesizing that seismic quiescence (i.e., the absence of earthquakes of M >= 5 for a minimum period of T-q) is a precursor of a large (7.5 <= M-w < 8.5) earthquake in the coming period T-a within a radius R of the quiescence. We evaluate the receiver-operating-characteristic diagram constructed using a range of forecast models specified by (T-q, R, T-a). A forecast experiment targeting eight large earthquakes in the studied spacetime suggests that the risk of a large earthquake is modestly (probability gain G similar to 2) but significantly (p-value less than 5%) heightened for several years following a long quiescent period of T-q >= 9 years, within several tens of kilometers of the quiescence. We then attempt cross-validation, where we use half the data for training [i.e., optimization of (T-q, R, T-a)] and the remaining half for evaluation. With only four target earthquakes available for evaluation of the forecasts in each of the learning and evaluation periods, our forecast scheme did not pass the cross-validation test (with a criterion that the p-value is less than 5%). Hence, we cannot formally deny the possibility that our positive results for the overall period are a ghost arising from over-fitting. However, through detailed comparison of optimal models in the overall test with those in the cross-validation tests, we argue that severe over-fitting is unlikely involved for the modest G of similar to 2 obtained in the overall test. There is thus a reasonable chance that the presently tested type of quiescence will pass the cross-validation test when more target earthquakes become available in the near future. In the meantime, we find that G improves to similar to 5 when target earthquakes are limited to 8 <= M-w < 8.5, though we cannot say anything about the possible involvement of over-fitting because we have only three such very large target earthquakes.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:理学院・理学研究院 (Graduate School of Science / Faculty of Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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