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Robust Asymmetry of the Future Arctic Polar Vortex Is Driven by Tropical Pacific Warming
| Title: | Robust Asymmetry of the Future Arctic Polar Vortex Is Driven by Tropical Pacific Warming |
| Authors: | Matsumura, Shinji Browse this author | | Yamazaki, Koji Browse this author | | Horinouchi, Takeshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | stratospheric polar vortex | | climate change | | North American stratospheric warming | | Tropical Pacific warming |
| Issue Date: | 16-Jun-2021 |
| Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
| Journal Title: | Geophysical Research Letters |
| Volume: | 48 |
| Issue: | 11 |
| Start Page: | e2021GL093440 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1029/2021GL093440 |
| Abstract: | The future stratosphere is globally dominated by a strong radiative cooling due to the increase in greenhouse gases. However, we find that over North America, the Arctic stratospheric cooling is suppressed or rather warming occurs, whereas over Eurasia stratospheric cooling is most pronounced, leading to an asymmetric polar vortex, based on 21st century climate model simulations. There are many causes that drive polar vortex variability, which make future projections highly uncertain. Our model simulations demonstrate that tropical warming induces the asymmetric polar vortex. The eastern equatorial Pacific warming causes eastward-shifted teleconnection with a deepened Aleutian low, which strengthens the polar vortex over Eurasia and weakens over North America by enhancing the vertical wave propagation into the stratosphere. The asymmetric polar vortex is projected to markedly develop in the 2030s, and so could affect winter surface climate over mid- to high-latitudes of Eurasia in the near future. |
| Rights: | Copyright 2021 American Geophysical Union. |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/83557 |
| Appears in Collections: | 環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 松村 伸治
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