知床をはじめとする北海道オホーツク海沿岸海域における海氷変動予測実験
三寺, 史夫;佐伯, 立;井上, 知栄;植田, 宏昭;中野渡, 拓也;黒田, 寛
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http://hdl.handle.net/2115/91753
JaLCDOI : 10.14943/lowtemsci.82.143
KEYWORDS : 海氷変動予測; 北海道オホーツク沿岸; 第6期結合モデル相互比較計画（CMIP6）; sea ice prediction; Sea of Okhotsk off the coast of Hokkaido; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6)
Abstract
The southern Sea of Okhotsk off Hokkaido is the most southern region where sea ice can reach in the northern hemisphere. Therefore, it is considered that the sea ice in this region is sensitive to the global warming. In this article, we describe preliminary results of the numerical experiments evaluating the variations of the sea ice in 2050 off Hokkaido. A sea-ice and ocean coupled model, covering the sea surrounding the Hokkaido (with a grid of 1/50°), is nested to a parent model that covers the entire Sea of Okhotsk (with a grid of 1/10°), and is forced by an atmospheric data which is produced by utilizing the difference between the 2050 climate and the 2000 climate presented by the CMIP6 models, in order to project the sea ice variations of 2050. The sea-ice and ocean coupled model predicted that the sea ice area, would be reduced to 1/3 in 2050 compared to the present sea ice area even in a low greenhouse gas emission scenario.
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