Permalink : http://hdl.handle.net/2115/55017

エアロゾルの「数・粒径・混合状態」は, 気候変動予測において最大の不確定性要因の１つである直接・間接効果を推定する上で最も本質的なパラメータである. しかしながら, 多くの３次元モデルではこれらのパラメータを十分に表現していない. これまでの私の研究では, エアロゾルの「数・粒径・混合状態」を支配するブラックカーボンの混合状態, 新粒子生成, 有機エアロゾル生成のそれぞれの過程について, 物理化学法則に基づいて詳細に表現する３次元エアロゾルモデルを開発し, 実大気観測による様々な比較・検証を行ってきた. そして, これらのモデルを組み合わせたエアロゾル統合モデルを開発してきた. 本論文では, これらのモデル開発・検証の概要を紹介する.
The estimation of aerosol direct and indirect effects is still one of the largest uncertainties in predicting future climate. Number concentrations,size distributions, and mixing states of aerosols are the essential parameters for the estimation of these effects accurately. However, most of current aerosol three-dimensional models do not represent these aerosol parameters sufficiently. In my study, I have developed modules for mixing states of black carbon,new particle formation, and organic aerosol formation processes (important physical and chemical processes controlling number concentrations, size distributions,and mixing states of aerosols) using the Weather Research and Forecasting and Chemistry (WRF-chem) model. The model validations of individual modules have been made through the detailed comparisons with various aerosol measurements in the atmosphere. I have also developed a unified aerosol model that can calculate all the above processes simultaneously. In this paper, I describe the outline of these model developments and validations.