### 大規模玉葱産地の収量変動の影響に関するシミュレーション分析 : 推測的変動を組み込んだ不完全競争空間均衡モデルを適用して

*松田, 敏信*

Permalink : http://hdl.handle.net/2115/63115

#### Abstract

This paper approaches the interregional equilibrium prices and flows of onions in terms of competitiveness of the markets. The spatial price equilibrium model is extended to apply to the markets of various degrees of competition, including perfectly competitive and monopolistic ones as the two extremes. The model is formulated as a linear complementarity problem and solved by Lemke's method. The estimators of conjectural variation are incorporated into the model to get the optimum solutions that prove to be exactly equal to the actual values, which adds credibility to the model simulations of supply fluctuations of Hokkaido, by far the largest-scale production center of onions in Japan. The empirical results suggest that, as the onion harvest increases in Hokkaido, the market price level gets lower, decreasing imports, and part of the harvest runs to waste, the amount of which becomes smaller as the other production centers adjust their supplies faster, and that the decrease of the harvest in Hokkaido leads to the higher market price level and the increase of imports, which can be moderated by supply adjustment of the others.

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