Permalink : http://hdl.handle.net/2115/75298

By analyzing agricultural census data and Markov modeling, we predicted agricultural structural changes in the core rice paddy zone of Kamikawa Chūō, Kita Sorachi, Naka Sorachi, and Minami Sorachi, Hokkaido, to 2030. Recent structural change is evident in the form of hierarchal differentiation in Kamikawa Chūō and Naka Sorachi. Medium- and large-scale farms have become more common in Kita Sorachi and Minami Sorachi. We predict hierarchical flatening in Kamikawa Chūō and Naka Sorachi and hierarchical pyramidization with the growth of large-scale farms in Kita Sorachi and Minami Sorachi.