open access

https://hdl.handle.net/2115/47756

Energy Crisis as Global Problem

英語

environmental deterioration

2011-03-31

Hokkaido University Public Policy School

Annals, Public Policy Studies

5

165-188

Energy demand and supply in recent years can be summarized by the following ten statements. 1. Regarding the developed countries, which have consumed much oil, the US consumes one-fourth of the world's oil and tends to increase its consumption, while Europe has leveled off and Japan's consumption is trending toward decline. 2. China, India, and other emerging nations have smaller per capita consumption than the US, Europe, and Japan, but their oil demand is skyrocketing. This and the emerging nations' oil demand will elevate oil prices. 3. Coal is the main energy source in emerging nations. Their main energy source will not switch from coal to oil, and coal consumption will rapidly increase. Their coal demand will make coal prices rise. 4. Because of the above factors, consumption of both oil and coal will tend to increase, and supply will be unable to keep up. 5. Rising energy consumption is leading to environmental deterioration. 6. Production in many existing oilfields has already peaked, extraction is becoming more difficult, oil quality is declining, and the marginal cost of production is rising. 7. Oilfield exploration is no longer able to discover fields which are large, of good quality, easy to drill, and near consuming areas. Many newly discovered fields are small, of poor quality, hard to drill, and far from consuming areas. 8. For both oil and coal, the age of "cheap energy" is over. In the medium to long term, energy prices will rise and fluctuate wildly. 9. Energy resources will transition from a non-zero-sum condition to a zero-sum condition, and there are concerns that confrontations will intensify due to factors such as supply instability and the scramble for resources. 10. Items 6 through 9 do not mean that reserves will physically run out. Considerable amounts of recoverable reserves will remain, but society will become destabilized and panic could readily occur.

紀要論文

Version of Record

1881-9818

AA12291642