open access

https://hdl.handle.net/2115/50708

Survival analysis on bridges for modeling bridge replacement and evaluating bridge performance

英語

Stratification

2012-03

Taylor & Francis

Structure and Infrastructure Engineering

8(3)

251-268

A sustainable civil infrastructure is a prerequisite for achieving sustainability in infrastructure development. However, the finite lifetime of infrastructure indicates a latent mass-maintenance problem in some countries which had experienced mass-construction of infrastructure during high economic growth. To achieve optimal infrastructure management for overcoming this mass-maintenance problem, life prediction of infrastructure is indispensable. Hence, in this research, bridge life assessment from actual bridge survival data of U.S. and Japan was carried out by using the method of survival analysis, a method commonly applied in the field of epidemiology for the analysis of lifetime. The results estimated average bridge life at 93.5 years and a bridge replacement projection model was successfully derived. The bridge replacement projection model can be applied as an approximation for other countries where the same design specifications are followed. By carrying out stratifications of bridge cohorts in U.S., evaluations of bridge performance with respect to structure length; traffic volume and truck traffic volume were also executed.

学術雑誌論文

Accepted Manuscript

1573-2479

1744-8980

AA12013016