open access

https://hdl.handle.net/2115/53394

Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach

英語

System dynamics

2013-08-27

Biomed central ltd

Human resources for health

11

Page 1 of 10-Page 10 of 10

Background: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. Method: We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. Result & conclusion: As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008-2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.

学術雑誌論文

Version of Record

Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic

1478-4491

AA12050850