Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016

Dinh, Linh; Chowell, Gerardo; Mizumoto, Kenji; Nishiura, Hiroshi

Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016

Dinh, Linh; Chowell, Gerardo; Mizumoto, Kenji et al.

Theoretical biology and medical modelling, 2016, 13, 20

Permalink : https://hdl.handle.net/2115/64316

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アクセス権	open access
URI	https://hdl.handle.net/2115/64316
タイトル	Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016
著者	Dinh, Linh ; Chowell, Gerardo ; Mizumoto, Kenji ; Nishiura, Hiroshi
著者名 Dinh, Linh
著者名 Chowell, Gerardo
著者名 Mizumoto, Kenji
e-Rad_Researcher 70432987 著者名 Nishiura, Hiroshi
言語	英語
キーワード	Prediction
	Zika virus
	Epidemic
	Mathematical model
	Basic reproduction number
発行日	2016-11-09
出版者	BioMed Central
収録物名	Theoretical biology and medical modelling
巻(号)	13
ページ	20
抄録	Background: Florida State has reported autochthonous transmission of Zika virus since late July 2016. Here we assessed the transmissibility associated with the outbreak and generated a short-term forecast. Methods: Time-dependent dynamics of imported cases reported in the state of Florida was approximated by a logistic growth equation. We estimated the reproduction number using the renewal equation in order to predict the incidence of local cases arising from both local and imported primary cases. Using a bootstrap method together with the logistic and renewal equations, a short-term forecast of local and imported cases was carried out. Results: The reproduction number was estimated at 0.16 (95 % Confidence Interval: 0.13, 0.19). Employing the logistic equation to capture a drastic decline in the number of imported cases expected through the course of 2016, together with the low estimate of the local reproduction number in Florida, the expected number of local reported cases was demonstrated to show an evident declining trend for the remainder of 2016. Conclusions: The risk of local transmission in the state of Florida is predicted to dramatically decline by the end of 2016.
資源タイプ	学術雑誌論文
出版タイプ	Version of Record
権利情報	Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
PISSN	1742-4682
関連情報 (isIdenticalTo)	出版社版DOI https://doi.org/10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1