open access

https://hdl.handle.net/2115/75503

Future Changes in Monthly Extreme Precipitation in Japan Using Large-Ensemble Regional Climate Simulations

英語

2019-03

American Meteorological Society

Journal of hydrometeorology

20(3)

563-574

This study investigated future changes in monthly extreme precipitation in Japan during summer (June-August). The uncertainties in estimating extreme monthly precipitation were analyzed using large-ensemble regional climate simulations for both present and 4-K warmer climates. The main diagnostics were based on the 100-yr return values of monthly total precipitation P-T100 estimated from a best-fit probability distribution. Under the warmer climate, P-T100 was projected to increase in approximately 87%, 88%, and 78% of the total number of stations for June, July, and August, respectively, suggesting that once-per-century monthly precipitation will increase as temperature increases over a wide area of Japan, although large regional variations will exist. The western part of Kyushu and the Hokkaido region showed significant and moderately robust increases in P-T100 throughout the summer months. In contrast, a considerable and robust increase was projected only in June in the Nansei Islands. The percentage change in P-T100 was small in western and eastern Japan, and thus the sign of the change was uncertain. Further analysis indicated that uncertainty in internal variability is more important than uncertainty in the SST scenario for future projections of monthly precipitation extremes.

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