Projecting future supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan using system dynamics

Morii, Yasuhiro; Ishikawa, Tomoki; Suzuki, Teppei; Tsuji, Shintaro; Yamanaka, Masanori; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko; Yamashina, Hiroko

Projecting future supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan using system dynamics

Morii, Yasuhiro; Ishikawa, Tomoki; Suzuki, Teppei et al.

Health policy and technology, 2019, 8(2), 118-127

Permalink : https://hdl.handle.net/2115/78749

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アクセス権	open access
URI	https://hdl.handle.net/2115/78749
タイトル	Projecting future supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan using system dynamics
著者	Morii, Yasuhiro ; Ishikawa, Tomoki ; Suzuki, Teppei ; Tsuji, Shintaro ; Yamanaka, Masanori ; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko ; Yamashina, Hiroko
著者名 Morii, Yasuhiro
著者名 Ishikawa, Tomoki
著者名 Suzuki, Teppei
著者名 Tsuji, Shintaro
e-Rad_Researcher 40166757 著者名 Yamanaka, Masanori
e-Rad_Researcher 90322859 著者名 Ogasawara, Katsuhiko
著者名 Yamashina, Hiroko
言語	英語
キーワード	Physical therapists
	Forecasting
	System dynamics modeling
	Policy scenario analysis
	Healthcare human resource
発行日	2019-06
出版者	Elsevier
収録物名	Health policy and technology
巻(号)	8(2)
ページ	118-127
抄録	Objectives: Japan is the oldest country in the world, and its demand for medical care is expected to increase. Although a clear vision regarding the supply and demand for physical therapy services is necessary, there has been no research that forecasts the supply and demand for physical therapists in Japan. Consensus has not been reached on whether the supply of physical therapists is sufficient. This study projects this supply and demand to provide medical policymakers with basic data. Methods: A system dynamics model was created to predict the number of physical therapists working in hospitals and clinics in Japan from 2014 to 2040. The future demand for physical therapy was estimated using the rehabilitation service utilization data from Open National Database, a publicly available nationwide health claims database. Sufficiency rates (supply/demand) were calculated, and sensitivity analysis was conducted on supply-related parameters. Results: The number of physical therapists was projected to be 1.74 and 2.54 times greater in 2025 and 2040, respectively, than in 2014. The sufficiency rates were 1.72, 2.39, and 3.30 in 2015, 2025, and 2040, respectively. The sensitivity analysis revealed that attrition rates had the greatest effects on sufficiency. Conclusions: Although the current supply appears to be needed, considering the expected increase and uncertainty in medical needs. However, there is a possibility of a future oversupply, especially after 2025, when the rate of increase in demand will lessen. Further studies are required to evaluate the distribution of physical therapists among regions and specialties. (C) 2019 Fellowship of Postgraduate Medicine. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
資源タイプ	学術雑誌論文
出版タイプ	Accepted Manuscript
権利情報	Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
権利情報	©2019. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
PISSN	2211-8837
関連情報 (isVersionOf)	出版社版DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hlpt.2019.05.003