open access

https://hdl.handle.net/2115/80371

Climate Change Impacts on Heavy Snowfall in Sapporo Using 5-km Mesh Large Ensemble Simulations

英語

2020-12-05

公益社団法人 日本気象学会 (Meteorological society of Japan)

SOLA (Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere)

16

233-239

Synoptic circulation patterns associated with heavy snowfall events in Sapporo are examined using large ensemble simulation with 60-km global climate experiments. For snowfall, a 5-km dynamically downscaled model from the 20-km regional simulation is utilized. To identify synoptic circulation patterns, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are applied, and their response to a warming climate is examined. The authors find that heavy snow events predominantly occur due to low pressure anomalies to the north/east of Hokkaido or over central Japan, and by high pressure anomalies over the Siberian continent. The 4 K warming climate shows robust decreases in heavy snowfall amounts associated with low pressure anomalies over central Japan and increases in heavy snowfall amounts under patterns with high pressure anomalies over Siberia. This is attributed to surface air temperature characteristics in future climates, as precipitation in the former with surface winds transporting warm, moist air from the south and east, develops predominantly above 0 degrees C in the +4 K climate, while the latter, often resulting in intense snow band events, continues to be dominated by temperatures near or below zero.

学術雑誌論文

Version of Record

1349-6476