Assessment of the confidence interval in the multivariable normal tissue complication probability model for predicting radiation-induced liver disease in primary liver cancer

Prayongrat, Anussara; Srimaneekarn, Natchalee; Sriswasdi, Sira; Ito, Yoichi M.; Katoh, Norio; Tamura, Masaya; Dekura, Yasuhiro; Toramatsu, Chie; Khorprasert, Chonlakiet; Amornwichet, Napapat; Alisanant, Petch; Hirata, Yuichi; Hayter, Anthony; Shirato, Hiroki; Shimizu, Shinichi; Kobashi, Keiji

Assessment of the confidence interval in the multivariable normal tissue complication probability model for predicting radiation-induced liver disease in primary liver cancer

Prayongrat, Anussara; Srimaneekarn, Natchalee; Sriswasdi, Sira et al.

Journal of Radiation Research, 2021, 62(3), 483-493

Permalink : https://hdl.handle.net/2115/83168

このアイテムのアクセス数:506件（2026-10-13 14:15 集計）

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https://doi.org/10.1093/jrr/rrab011			25

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アクセス権	open access
URI	https://hdl.handle.net/2115/83168
タイトル	Assessment of the confidence interval in the multivariable normal tissue complication probability model for predicting radiation-induced liver disease in primary liver cancer
著者	Prayongrat, Anussara ; Srimaneekarn, Natchalee ; Sriswasdi, Sira ; Ito, Yoichi M. ; Katoh, Norio ; Tamura, Masaya ; Dekura, Yasuhiro ; Toramatsu, Chie ; Khorprasert, Chonlakiet ; Amornwichet, Napapat ; Alisanant, Petch ; Hirata, Yuichi ; Hayter, Anthony ; Shirato, Hiroki ; Shimizu, Shinichi ; Kobashi, Keiji
著者名 Prayongrat, Anussara
著者名 Srimaneekarn, Natchalee
著者名 Sriswasdi, Sira
e-Rad_Researcher 10334236 著者名 Ito, Yoichi M.
e-Rad_Researcher 80572495 著者名 Katoh, Norio
e-Rad_Researcher 40504775 著者名 Tamura, Masaya
著者名 Dekura, Yasuhiro
著者名 Toramatsu, Chie
著者名 Khorprasert, Chonlakiet
著者名 Amornwichet, Napapat
著者名 Alisanant, Petch
著者名 Hirata, Yuichi
著者名 Hayter, Anthony
e-Rad_Researcher 20187537 著者名 Shirato, Hiroki
e-Rad_Researcher 50463724 著者名 Shimizu, Shinichi
著者名 Kobashi, Keiji
言語	英語
キーワード	normal tissue complication probability
	radiation-induced liver disease
	multivariable
	confidence interval
	prediction model
発行日	2021-05
出版者	Oxford University Press
収録物名	Journal of Radiation Research
巻(号)	62(3)
ページ	483-493
抄録	We developed a confidence interval-(CI) assessing model in multivariable normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) modeling for predicting radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) in primary liver cancer patients using clinical and dosimetric data. Both the mean NTCP and difference in the mean NTCP (Delta NTCP) between two treatment plans of different radiotherapy modalities were further evaluated and their CIs were assessed. Clinical data were retrospectively reviewed in 322 patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 215) and intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (n = 107) treated with photon therapy. Dose-volume histograms of normal liver were reduced to mean liver dose (MLD) based on the fraction size-adjusted equivalent uniform dose. The most predictive variables were used to build the model based on multivariable logistic regression analysis with bootstrapping. Internal validation was performed using the cross-validation leave-one-out method. Both the mean NTCP and the mean Delta NTCP with 95% CIs were calculated from computationally generated multivariate random sets of NTCP model parameters using variance-covariance matrix information. RILD occurred in 108/322 patients (33.5%). The NTCP model with three clinical and one dosimetric parameter (tumor type, Child-Pugh class, hepatitis infection status and MLD) was most predictive, with an area under the receiver operative characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.79 (95% CI 0.74-0.84). In eight clinical subgroups based on the three clinical parameters, both the mean NTCP and the mean Delta NTCP with 95% CIs were able to be estimated computationally. The multivariable NTCP model with the assessment of 95% CIs has potential to improve the reliability of the NTCP model-based approach to select the appropriate radiotherapy modality for each patient.
資源タイプ	学術雑誌論文
出版タイプ	Version of Record
PISSN	0449-3060
関連情報 (isIdenticalTo)	出版社版DOI https://doi.org/10.1093/jrr/rrab011