open access

https://hdl.handle.net/2115/86160

Natural disasters and migration choice in Vietnam : Estimating the impact of EL NIÑO using household data

英語

Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey

2022

日本国際地域開発学会

開発学研究

32(3)

28-34

Global warming is expected to become stronger over time, and accelerate climate change at both local and global scales. Climate-related disasters are a major risk that households face and have to cope with, and migration is a popular choice among households’ corresponding coping mechanisms. There have been an increasing number of studies on climate -induced migration, but the findings have been contradictory. Notably, along with migration, remittances are also a major concern with respect to disasters. However, research on the role of remittances during disasters is limited. This study contributes to the literature on the relationship between natural disasters and migration, and differentiates the role of remittances from household members and non-members. Using household data from the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey (VARHS) during the two periods of 2012 -2014 and 2014-2016, when Vietnam was hit by the EL NINO, we analyze the household decision of sending additional migrants by applying a logistic function. The findings show that EL NINO pushed households to send more migrants. Furthermore, a household’s connection with the migrant society and the financial ability to cover migration costs both significantly affect this decision. Households that received remittances from household members in the previous period are more likely to send more migrants in the following period when the EL NINO occurred. Regarding the connection to migrant society, private transfers also provided financial support for migration. Poor households that are constrained by financial resources face difficulty in sending migrants; this may expand the income gap between these households and those who can send migrants. Therefore, it is important to expand working opportunities and education as ex-ante risk-coping measures, especially for the poor.

学術雑誌論文

Accepted Manuscript

0918-9432