open access

https://hdl.handle.net/2115/88920

Global Warming Effect and Adaptation for a Flooding Event at Motsukisamu River in Sapporo

英語

2022-11-26

公益社団法人 日本気象学会 (Meteorological society of Japan)

SOLA (Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere)

18

249-253

A set of hydrological experiments for a flooding event on 11 September 2014 at Motsukisamu River in Sapporo were performed. Dynamical downscaling to 5-km resolution of a large-ensemble global simulation allowed us to estimate that a 99%-tile hourly precipitation in Sapporo would increase by 70% in a future climate, when the global-mean temperature increases by 4 K compared with the present climate. After developing a three-tank model of which parameters were optimized on the basis of the in-situ observation at the Motsukisamu River during the event period, the model was forced by hypothetical hyetographs of the event that would occur under the future climate. The results of this experiment suggested that the peak flow rate would increase by 75%. However, it was also revealed that an upstream aqueduct tunnel, just completed in autumn 2021, would effectively reduce the peak flow rate and mitigate the flooding risk even in extreme precipitation under the future climate.

学術雑誌論文

Version of Record

1349-6476