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知床をはじめとする北海道オホーツク海沿岸海域における海氷変動予測実験
三寺, 史夫;佐伯, 立;井上, 知栄;植田, 宏昭;中野渡, 拓也;黒田, 寛
Permalink : http://hdl.handle.net/2115/91753
JaLCDOI : 10.14943/lowtemsci.82.143
KEYWORDS : 海氷変動予測;北海道オホーツク沿岸;第6期結合モデル相互比較計画（CMIP6）;sea ice prediction;Sea of Okhotsk off the coast of Hokkaido;Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6)
Abstract
北海道オホーツク海沿岸は季節海氷が到達する北半球の最南端であり，地球温暖化に敏感な海域と考えられている．本研究では，北海道東方海域での海氷変動に着目し，2050年に関する海氷変動を評価した．予測実験は，オホーツク海全体をカバーする解像度1/10°の海氷・海洋モデルに北海道周辺の海域をカバーする解像度1/50°のモデルをネスティングし，第6期結合モデル相互比較計画（CMIP6）における2050年を中心とした20年間の平均値と2000年のそれの差分値を大気境界条件に利用することにより行った．その結果，低位温暖化シナリオにおいてさえ，北海道沖の海氷面積は2050年に現在の約1/3に減少する，という予測結果を得た．
The southern Sea of Okhotsk off Hokkaido is the most southern region where sea ice can reach in the northern hemisphere. Therefore, it is considered that the sea ice in this region is sensitive to the global warming. In this article, we describe preliminary results of the numerical experiments evaluating the variations of the sea ice in 2050 off Hokkaido. A sea-ice and ocean coupled model, covering the sea surrounding the Hokkaido (with a grid of 1/50°), is nested to a parent model that covers the entire Sea of Okhotsk (with a grid of 1/10°), and is forced by an atmospheric data which is produced by utilizing the difference between the 2050 climate and the 2000 climate presented by the CMIP6 models, in order to project the sea ice variations of 2050. The sea-ice and ocean coupled model predicted that the sea ice area, would be reduced to 1/3 in 2050 compared to the present sea ice area even in a low greenhouse gas emission scenario.
The southern Sea of Okhotsk off Hokkaido is the most southern region where sea ice can reach in the northern hemisphere. Therefore, it is considered that the sea ice in this region is sensitive to the global warming. In this article, we describe preliminary results of the numerical experiments evaluating the variations of the sea ice in 2050 off Hokkaido. A sea-ice and ocean coupled model, covering the sea surrounding the Hokkaido (with a grid of 1/50°), is nested to a parent model that covers the entire Sea of Okhotsk (with a grid of 1/10°), and is forced by an atmospheric data which is produced by utilizing the difference between the 2050 climate and the 2000 climate presented by the CMIP6 models, in order to project the sea ice variations of 2050. The sea-ice and ocean coupled model predicted that the sea ice area, would be reduced to 1/3 in 2050 compared to the present sea ice area even in a low greenhouse gas emission scenario.
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