Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios

Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H.; Yamano, Hiroya; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios

Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H.; Yamano, Hiroya et al.

Ecology and evolution, 2015, 5(1), 213-223

Permalink : https://hdl.handle.net/2115/58139

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アクセス権	open access
URI	https://hdl.handle.net/2115/58139
タイトル	Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios
著者	Takao, Shintaro ; Kumagai, Naoki H. ; Yamano, Hiroya ; Fujii, Masahiko ; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro
著者名 Takao, Shintaro
著者名 Kumagai, Naoki H.
e-Rad_Researcher 60332243 著者名 Yamano, Hiroya
e-Rad_Researcher 60443925 著者名 Fujii, Masahiko
e-Rad_Researcher 40242177 著者名 Yamanaka, Yasuhiro
言語	英語
キーワード	Barren ground
	climate change
	future projection
	global warming
	herbivores
	seaweed
発行日	2015-01
出版者	Wiley-Blackwell
収録物名	Ecology and evolution
巻(号)	5(1)
ページ	213-223
抄録	Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E.cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E.cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year-round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E.cava by the 2090s, due to both high-temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E.cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.
資源タイプ	学術雑誌論文
出版タイプ	Version of Record
権利情報	Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
PISSN	2045-7758
関連情報 (isIdenticalTo)	出版社版DOI https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1358