Permalink : http://hdl.handle.net/2115/84667

Under the COVID-19 pandemic, a boom in bread baking was triggered by the need to stay at home. This study investigates the impact of this crisis situation on standard flour and pre-mixed flour, employing a tobit model with a random effect, and using home-scanned data in Kanagawa prefecture. Consumers in sectors impacted by COVID-19, such as the tourism and restaurant industries, show increased demand for pre-mixed flour but less demand for standard flour. Households whose income may have declined or is expected to decline do not show demand for bread-baking, rather demanding pre-mixed flour as a substitute for eating-out or lunch dishes. The estimated results of demand function shows that standard flour and pre-mixed flour can be substituted for each other, but pre-mixed flour is more easily substituted by standard flour thanvise-versa. Inthe stay-home period, demand for pre-mixed flour is substituted with standard flour, especially by flour processed from domestically produced wheat. During the COVID-19 pandemic, price elasticity became more elastic for pre-mixed flour, while it became less elastic for standard flour. Price inelasticity for domestic wheat means that consumers have strong loyalty to domestic wheat, thus price change does not have an impact on their demand. On the other hand, pre-mixed flour using domestic wheat is shownto be easily substituted with foreignwheat products, because of the higher price elasticity. This result indicates the high premium of domestic wheat flour, though the quantity supplied has not expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic.