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Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands

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Title: Regime shifts and heterogeneous trends in malaria time series from Western Kenya Highlands
Authors: Chaves, Luis Fernando Browse this author →ORCID
Hashizume, Masahiro Browse this author
Satake, Akiko Browse this author
Minakawa, Noboru Browse this author
Keywords: time series
Kendu Bay
climate change
seasonal autoregressive
Issue Date: Jan-2012
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Journal Title: Parasitology
Volume: 139
Issue: 1
Start Page: 14
End Page: 25
Publisher DOI: 10.1017/S0031182011001685
Abstract: Large malaria epidemics in the East African highlands during the mid and late 1990s kindled a stream of research on the role that global warming might have on malaria transmission. Most of the inferences using temporal information have been derived from a malaria incidence time series from Kericho. Here, we report a detailed analysis of 5 monthly time series, between 15 and 41 years long, from West Kenya encompassing an altitudinal gradient along Lake Victoria basin. We found decreasing, but heterogeneous, malaria trends since the late 1980s at low altitudes (<1600 m), and the early 2000s at high altitudes (>1600 m). Regime shifts were present in 3 of the series and were synchronous in the 2 time series from high altitudes. At low altitude, regime shifts were associated with a shift from increasing to decreasing malaria transmission, as well as a decrease in variability. At higher altitudes, regime shifts reflected an increase in malaria transmission variability. The heterogeneity in malaria trends probably reflects the multitude of factors that can drive malaria transmission and highlights the need for both spatially and temporally fine-grained data to make sound inferences about the impacts of climate change and control/elimination interventions on malaria transmission.
Rights: ©Cambridge University Press 2011
Type: article
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: Luis Fernando CHAVES

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