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Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall Drive a Moran Effect in East Africa Malaria Transmission

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Title: Indian Ocean Dipole and Rainfall Drive a Moran Effect in East Africa Malaria Transmission
Authors: Chaves, Luis Fernando Browse this author →ORCID
Satake, Akiko Browse this author
Hashizume, Masahiro Browse this author
Minakawa, Noboru Browse this author
Keywords: Synchrony
Climate Change
Indian Ocean Dipole
Time Series
Issue Date: 15-Jun-2012
Publisher: Oxford University Press
Journal Title: Journal of Infectious Diseases
Volume: 205
Issue: 12
Start Page: 1885
End Page: 1891
Publisher DOI: 10.1093/infdis/jis289
PMID: 22492847
Abstract: Background: Patterns of concerted fluctuation in populations, synchrony, can reveal impacts of climatic variability on disease dynamics. Here, we examined whether malaria transmission has been synchronous in an area with a common rainfall regime and sensitive to the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a global climatic phenomenon affecting weather patterns in East Africa. Methods: We studied malaria synchrony in five fifteen year long (1984-1999) monthly time series that encompass an altitudinal gradient, ∼1000m to 2000m, along Lake Victoria basin. We quantified the association patterns between rainfall and malaria time series at different altitudes and across the altitudinal gradient encompassed by the study locations. Results: We found a positive seasonal association of rainfall with malaria, which decreased with altitude. By contrast, IOD and interannual rainfall impacts on interannual disease cycles increased with altitude. Our analysis revealed a non-decaying synchrony of similar magnitude in both malaria and rainfall, as expected under a Moran effect, supporting a role for climatic variability on malaria epidemic frequency, which might reflect rainfall mediated changes in mosquito abundance. Conclusion: Synchronous malaria epidemics call for the integration of knowledge on the forcing of malaria transmission by environmental variability to develop robust malaria control and elimination programs.
Rights: This is a pre-copy-editing, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Infectious Diseases following peer review. The definitive publisher-authenticated version J Infect Dis. (2012) 205 (12): 1885-1891 is available online at:
Type: article (author version)
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: Luis Fernando CHAVES

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