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Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)

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Title: Ice-sheet model sensitivities to environmental forcing and their use in projecting future sea level (the SeaRISE project)
Authors: Bindschadler, Robert A. Browse this author
Nowicki, Sophie Browse this author
Abe-Ouchi, Ayako Browse this author
Aschwanden, Andy Browse this author
Choi, Hyeungu Browse this author
Fastook, Jim Browse this author
Granzow, Glen Browse this author
Greve, Ralf Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Gutowski, Gail Browse this author
Herzfeld, Ute Browse this author
Jackson, Charles Browse this author
Johnson, Jesse Browse this author
Khroulev, Constantine Browse this author
Levermann, Anders Browse this author
Lipscomb, William H. Browse this author
Martin, Maria A. Browse this author
Morlighem, Mathieu Browse this author
Parizek, Byron R. Browse this author
Pollard, David Browse this author
Price, Stephen F. Browse this author
Ren, Diandong Browse this author
Saito, Fuyuki Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Sato, Tatsuru Browse this author
Seddik, Hakime Browse this author
Seroussi, Helene Browse this author
Takahashi, Kunio Browse this author
Walker, Ryan Browse this author
Wang, Wei Li Browse this author
Issue Date: Apr-2013
Publisher: International Glaciological Society
Journal Title: Journal of Glaciology
Volume: 59
Issue: 214
Start Page: 195
End Page: 224
Publisher DOI: 10.3189/2013JoG12J125
Abstract: Ten ice-sheet models are used to study sensitivity of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to prescribed changes of surface mass balance, sub-ice-shelf melting and basal sliding. Results exhibit a large range in projected contributions to sea-level change. In most cases, the ice volume above flotation lost is linearly dependent on the strength of the forcing. Combinations of forcings can be closely approximated by linearly summing the contributions from single forcing experiments, suggesting that nonlinear feedbacks are modest. Our models indicate that Greenland is more sensitive than Antarctica to likely atmospheric changes in temperature and precipitation, while Antarctica is more sensitive to increased ice-shelf basal melting. An experiment approximating the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's RCP8.5 scenario produces additional first-century contributions to sea level of 22.3 and 8.1 cm from Greenland and Antarctica, respectively, with a range among models of 62 and 14 cm, respectively. By 200 years, projections increase to 53.2 and 26.7 cm, respectively, with ranges of 79 and 43 cm. Linear interpolation of the sensitivity results closely approximates these projections, revealing the relative contributions of the individual forcings on the combined volume change and suggesting that total ice-sheet response to complicated forcings over 200 years can be linearized.
Rights: © 2013 International Glaciological Society
Type: article
Appears in Collections:低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: Greve Ralf

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