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Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach

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Title: Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach
Authors: Ishikawa, Tomoki Browse this author
Ohba, Hisateru Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Yokooka, Yuki Browse this author
Nakamura, Kozo Browse this author
Ogasawara, Katsuhiko Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: Forecasting the number of physicians
Shortage of physician
System dynamics
Issue Date: 27-Aug-2013
Publisher: Biomed central ltd
Journal Title: Human resources for health
Volume: 11
Start Page: Page 1 of 10
End Page: Page 10 of 10
Publisher DOI: 10.1186/1478-4491-11-41
Abstract: Background: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians. Method: We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis. Result & conclusion: As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008-2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:保健科学院・保健科学研究院 (Graduate School of Health Sciences / Faculty of Health Sciences) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 小笠原 克彦

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