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Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models

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Title: Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models
Authors: Levermann, A. Browse this author
Winkelmann, R. Browse this author
Nowicki, S. Browse this author
Fastook, J. L. Browse this author
Frieler, K. Browse this author
Greve, R. Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Hellmer, H. H. Browse this author
Martin, M. A. Browse this author
Mengel, M. Browse this author
Payne, A. J. Browse this author
Pollard, D. Browse this author
Sato, T. Browse this author
Timmermann, R. Browse this author
Wang, W. L. Browse this author
Bindschadler, R. A. Browse this author
Issue Date: 23-Aug-2012
Publisher: Copernicus Publications
Journal Title: The Cryosphere Discussions
Volume: 6
Issue: 4
Start Page: 3447
End Page: 3489
Publisher DOI: 10.5194/tcd-6-3447-2012
Abstract: The largest uncertainty in projections of future sea-level change still results from the potentially changing dynamical ice discharge from Antarctica. While ice discharge can alter through a number of processes, basal ice-shelf melting induced by a warming ocean has been identified as a major if not the major cause for possible additional ice flow across the grounding line. Here we derive dynamic ice-sheet response functions for basal ice-shelf melting using experiments carried out within the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) intercomparison project with five different Antarctic ice-sheet models. As used here these response functions provide separate contributions for four different Antarctic drainage regions. Under the assumptions of linear-response theory we project future ice-discharge for each model, each region and each of the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) using oceanic temperatures from 19 comprehensive climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP-5, and two ocean models from the EU-project Ice2Sea. Uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-model differences is combined into an uncertainty range of future Antarctic ice-discharge induced from basal ice-shelf melt. The additional ice-loss (Table 6) is clearly scenario-dependent and results in a median of 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.10 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.26 m) of global sea-level equivalent for the low-emission RCP-2.6 scenario and yields 0.1 m (66%-range: 0.06–0.14 m; 90%-range: −0.01–0.45 m) for the strongest RCP-8.5. If only models with an explicit representation of ice-shelves are taken into account the scenario dependence remains and the values change to: 0.05 m (66%-range: 0.03–0.08 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.07 m (66%-range: 0.04–0.11 m) for RCP-8.5. These results were obtained using a time delay between the surface warming signal and the subsurface oceanic warming as observed in the CMIP-5 models. Without this time delay the ranges for all ice-models changes to 0.10 m (66%-range: 0.07–0.12 m; 90%-range: 0.01–0.28 m) for RCP-2.6 and 0.15 m (66%-range: 0.10–0.21 m; 90%-range: 0.02–0.53 m) for RCP-8.5. All probability distributions as provided in Fig. 10 are highly skewed towards high values.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: Greve Ralf

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