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Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments

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タイトル: Hot temperatures can force delayed mosquito outbreaks via sequential changes in Aedes aegypti demographic parameters in autocorrelated environments
著者: Chaves, Luis Fernando 著作を一覧する
Scott, Thomas W. 著作を一覧する
Morrison, Amy C. 著作を一覧する
Takada, Takenori 著作を一覧する
キーワード: Population delay
Density dependence
Climate change
Trade-offs
Lefkovitch matrix
発行日: 2014年 1月
出版者: Elsevier, B.V.
誌名: Acta Tropica
巻: 129
開始ページ: 15
終了ページ: 24
出版社 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.02.025
抄録: Aedes aegypti L. (Diptera: Culicidae) is a common pantropical urban mosquito, vector of dengue, Yellow Fever and chikungunya viruses. Studies have shown Ae. aegypti abundance to be associated with environmental fluctuations, revealing patterns such as the occurrence of delayed mosquito outbreaks, i.e., sudden extraordinary increases in mosquito abundance following transient extreme high temperatures. Here, we use a two-stage (larvae and adults) matrix model to propose a mechanism for environmental signal canalization into demographic parameters of Ae. aegypti that could explain delayed high temperature induced mosquito outbreaks. We performed model simulations using parameters estimated from a weekly time series from Thailand, assuming either independent or autocorrelated environments. For autocorrelated environments, we found that long delays in the association between the onset of “hot” environments and mosquito outbreaks (10 weeks, as observed in Thailand) can be generated when “hot” environments sequentially trigger a larval survival decrease and over-compensatory fecundity increase, which lasts for the whole “hot” period, in conjunction with a larval survival increase followed by a fecundity decrease when the environment returns to “normal”. This result was not observed for independent environments. Finally, we discuss our results implications for prospective entomological research and vector management under changing environments.
Rights: Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved
資料タイプ: article (author version)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/53900
出現コレクション:雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

提供者: Luis Fernando CHAVES

 

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