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Title: 地球温暖化に伴う海水温上昇が日本近海の造礁サンゴの分布と健全度に及ぼす影響評価
Other Titles: Projected effects of global warming on coral reefs in seas close to Japan
Authors: 屋良, 由美子1 Browse this author
藤井, 賢彦2 Browse this author →KAKEN DB
山中, 康裕3 Browse this author →KAKEN DB
岡田, 直資4 Browse this author
山野, 博哉5 Browse this author →KAKEN DB
大島, 和裕6 Browse this author
Authors(alt): YARA, Yumiko1
FUJII, Masahiko2
YAMANAKA, Yasuhiro3
OKADA, Naosuke4
YAMANO, Hiroya5
OSHIMA, Kazuhiro6
Keywords: サンゴ
Issue Date: Dec-2009
Publisher: 日本サンゴ礁学会
Journal Title: 日本サンゴ礁学会誌
Journal Title(alt): Journal of the Japanese Coral Reef Society
Volume: 11
Issue: 1
Start Page: 131
End Page: 140
Publisher DOI: 10.3755/jcrs.11.131
Abstract: 地球温暖化に伴う海水温上昇は,造礁サンゴ(以下,サンゴ)の生息域を高緯度側に移動(北半球においては北上)させる,或いは白化の規模・頻度・強度を増大させることで,将来のサンゴの分布や健全度に多大な影響を及ぼすと考えられる。本研究では,高解像度気候予測シミュレーションで得られた月平均海面水温(SST; Sea Surface Temperature)から見積もられた簡易指標を用いて,日本近海を対象に温暖化に伴うSST上昇が日本近海の潜在的なサンゴの分布および健全度に及ぼす影響を評価した。その結果,現在は南九州沿岸に存在する主なサンゴ礁の形成北限と新潟・千葉沿岸にある高緯度サンゴの分布北限が,21世紀末にはそれぞれ北部九州沿岸と青森・岩手沿岸に至る可能性が示された。また,南西諸島ではサンゴの白化や大量死をもたらす深刻な白化を誘発するような高水温が出現する頻度が増え,現在では単発的に報告されているサンゴの白化が,21世紀半ば以降にはより通常の現象として認識される可能性があることが示唆された。
Global warming and associated increases in water temperature is considered to be a crucial factor for future corals, by inducing coral habitat migration toward higher latitudes and intensifying chances for coral bleaching and death. Using projected monthly-mean sea surface temperature in the 21st century, we quantitatively evaluate the potential effects of global warming on corals in seas close to Japan. Our result shows that the temperature-determined northern limit of subtropical coral reefs, which is currently located in the southern Kyushu, is expected to migrate northward, up to the northern Kyushu, and that the northern limit of coral habitat, currently located in Niigata and Chiba Prefectures, is estimated to go up to Aomori and Iwate Prefectures, by the end of the 21st century. In the Ryukyu Islands, on the other hand, both frequency and area of coral bleaching or death are expected to be intensified. Particularly, intermittently experienced high water temperatures which result in bleaching or death of present-day corals, will appear perpetually in the latter half of the 21st century.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 藤井 賢彦

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