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Projection and uncertainty of the poleward range expansion of coral habitats in response to sea surface temperature warming: A multiple climate model study

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Title: Projection and uncertainty of the poleward range expansion of coral habitats in response to sea surface temperature warming: A multiple climate model study
Authors: YARA, Yumiko Browse this author
OSHIMA, Kazuhiro Browse this author
FUJII, Masahiko Browse this author →KAKEN DB
YAMANO, Hiroya Browse this author →KAKEN DB
YAMANAKA, Yasuhiro Browse this author →KAKEN DB
OKADA, Naosuke Browse this author
Keywords: coral habitats
global warming
sea surface temperature
climate models
decadal climate variability
uncertainty
Issue Date: Dec-2011
Publisher: 日本サンゴ礁学会
Journal Title: Galaxea, Journal of Coral Reef Studies
Volume: 13
Issue: 1
Start Page: 11
End Page: 20
Publisher DOI: 10.3755/galaxea.13.11
Abstract: Using projected monthly mean sea surface tem-perature (SST) in the 21st century obtained by multiple climate models and SST-based indices for the poleward range expansions of three types of coral habitats, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of SST warming on potential northern limit of coral habitats in seas close to Japan and their uncertainty in the global warming pro-jections. The uncertainty in the timing of temperate coral community formation due to global warming was no less than 30 years, with a modulation of ±10 years due to decadal climate variability. Tropical-subtropical and tem-perate coral communities and coral occurrence in seas close to Japan were predicted to shift poleward by a few hundred kilometers by the end of the 21st century. The average estimated speeds of the shifts were 1, 2, and 4 km/year for the tropical-subtropical coral community, temper-ate coral community, and coral occurrence, respectively. The simulated speeds were relatively slower than those previously observed (up to 14 km/year; Yamano et al. 2011), indicating that there are time lags between the new recruitment of coral colonies and the establishment of coral communities. Hence, monitoring of coral dynamics in response to SST warming is required. Collaboration between monitoring and modeling would enhance the reliability of future projections of changes in coral ha-bitats. Such projections are important for conserving marine biodiversity and developing plans for human societies to adapt to global warming.
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/56492
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 藤井 賢彦

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