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Projected coral bleaching in response to future sea surface temperature rises and the uncertainties among climate models

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Title: Projected coral bleaching in response to future sea surface temperature rises and the uncertainties among climate models
Authors: Yara, Yumiko Browse this author
Fujii, Masahiko Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Yamano, Hiroya Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Yamanaka, Yasuhiro Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: Biodiversity
Coral bleaching
Future projection
Global warming
Rise in water temperature
Uncertainty
Issue Date: Jul-2014
Publisher: Springer
Journal Title: Hydrobiologia
Volume: 733
Issue: 1
Start Page: 19
End Page: 29
Publisher DOI: 10.1007/s10750-014-1838-0
Abstract: We quantitatively evaluated the effects of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on coral bleaching and the uncertainties resulting from differences in global warming projections. To do so, we used monthly SSTs in the twenty-first century obtained from 23 climate models under the A1B scenario (from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) and SST-based indices for coral bleaching. All of the projections indicated that severe bleaching or death of corals will be common and severe in wide areas of the tropical and subtropical oceans by the middle of this century. However, decadal oscillation could modify the exact timing by around +/- 10 years. Such projections are important for conserving marine biodiversity and designing future strategies to avoid tropical and subtropical coral extinction. To obtain more reliable projections and reduce uncertainties, climate models should be improved by using higher spatiotemporal resolutions, and more realistic biological indices should be embedded into existing models.
Rights: The final publication is available at link.springer.com. © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014, Published online: 5 March 2014
Type: article (author version)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/58019
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 藤井 賢彦

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