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Evaluation of the predictability of fishing forecasts using information theory

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Title: Evaluation of the predictability of fishing forecasts using information theory
Authors: Baba, Shinya Browse this author
Matsuishi, Takashi Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: Fishing forecast
Forecast evaluation
Information theory
Mutual information
Pacific saury
Relative entropy
Issue Date: May-2014
Publisher: Springer
Journal Title: Fisheries Science
Volume: 80
Issue: 3
Start Page: 427
End Page: 434
Publisher DOI: 10.1007/s12562-014-0736-8
Abstract: The catch forecast is important for fisheries activities. Previous research has tried to improve forecast accuracy. However the forecast accuracy does not directly correspond to the forecast benefit, and an inaccurate forecast could be more beneficial than accurate one. Herein as part of the forecast utility, predictability was evaluated using information theory. Mutual information (MI) was used as index of predictability. MI denotes a reduction in uncertainty when a forecast is taken into account. Adding this, hit ratio (HR) and relative entropy (R) were used as consistency indices. HR denotes a frequency for which the predicted values are consistent with the actual values, and R denotes the distance of the probability distribution between the actual and forecasted fishing conditions. As an application, the long-term change-ratio forecasts in 1972-2009 (n = 36), short-term change-ratio forecasts (n = 34), and short-term level forecasts (n = 33) in 2004-2009 of Pacific saury Cololabis saira fishery were evaluated. The order of MI, HR, and R varied between these forecasts, indicating that forecast predictability and consistency do not correspond. Monitoring multiple indices would improve forecasting systems.
Rights: The original publication is available at www.springerlink.com
Type: article (author version)
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/58420
Appears in Collections:水産科学院・水産科学研究院 (Graduate School of Fisheries Sciences / Faculty of Fisheries Sciences) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 松石 隆

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