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A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection
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Title: | A theoretical estimate of the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection |
Authors: | Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB | Mizumoto, Kenji Browse this author | Rock, Kat S. Browse this author | Yasuda, Yohei Browse this author | Kinoshita, Ryo Browse this author | Miyamatsu, Yuichiro Browse this author |
Keywords: | Microcephaly | Zika infection | Gestation | Statistical estimation | Brazil |
Issue Date: | Jun-2016 |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Journal Title: | Epidemics |
Volume: | 15 |
Start Page: | 66 |
End Page: | 70 |
Publisher DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2016.03.001 |
PMID: | 27288540 |
Abstract: | Objectives: There has been a growing concern over Zika virus (ZIKV) infection, particularly since a probable link between ZIKV infection during pregnancy and microcephaly in the baby was identified. The present study aimed to estimate a theoretical risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with ZIKV infection in Northeastern Brazil in 2015. Methods: Temporal distributions of microcephaly, reported dengue-like illness and dengue seropositive in Brazil were extracted from secondary data sources. Using an integral equation model and a back calculation technique, we estimated the risk of microcephaly during pregnancy with Zika virus infection. Results: If the fraction of Zika virus infections among a total of seronegative dengue-like illness cases is 30%, the risk of microcephaly following infection during the first trimester was estimated at 46.7% (95% CI: 9.1, 84.2), comparable to the risk of congenital rubella syndrome. However, the risk of microcephaly was shown to vary widely from 14.0% to 100%. The mean gestational age at delivery with microcephaly was estimated at 37.5 weeks (95% CI: 36.9, 39.3). Conclusions: The time interval between peaks of reported dengue-like illness and microcephaly was consistent with cause-outcome relationship. Our modeling framework predicts that the incidence of microcephaly is expected to steadily decline in early 2016, Brazil. |
Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ |
Type: | article |
URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/62618 |
Appears in Collections: | 医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 西浦 博
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