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Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014 : A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study

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Title: Reduced Risk of Importing Ebola Virus Disease because of Travel Restrictions in 2014 : A Retrospective Epidemiological Modeling Study
Authors: Otsuki, Shiori Browse this author
Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Issue Date: 22-Sep-2016
Publisher: The Public Library of Science
Journal Title: PLoS ONE
Volume: 11
Issue: 9
Start Page: e0163418
Publisher DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163418
Abstract: Background: An epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) from 2013-16 posed a serious risk of global spread during its early growth phase. A post-epidemic evaluation of the effectiveness of travel restrictions has yet to be conducted. The present study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of travel restrictions in reducing the risk of importation from mid-August to September, 2014, using a simple hazard-based statistical model. Methodology/Principal Findings: The hazard rate was modeled as an inverse function of the effective distance, an excellent predictor of disease spread, which was calculated from the airline transportation network. By analyzing datasets of the date of EVD case importation from the 15th of July to the 15th of September 2014, and assuming that the network structure changed from the 8th of August 2014 because of travel restrictions, parameters that characterized the hazard rate were estimated. The absolute risk reduction and relative risk reductions due to travel restrictions were estimated to be less than 1% and about 20%, respectively, for all models tested. Effectiveness estimates among African countries were greater than those for other countries outside Africa. Conclusions: The travel restrictions were not effective enough to expect the prevention of global spread of Ebola virus disease. It is more efficient to control the spread of disease locally during an early phase of an epidemic than to attempt to control the epidemic at international borders. Capacity building for local containment and coordinated and expedited international cooperation are essential to reduce the risk of global transmission.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 西浦 博

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