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Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses
This item is licensed under:Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
| Title: | Estimating the Lineage Dynamics of Human Influenza B Viruses |
| Authors: | Nyirenda, Mayumbo Browse this author | | Omori, Ryosuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Tessmer, Heidi L. Browse this author | | Arimura, Hiroki Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Ito, Kimihito Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Issue Date: | 9-Nov-2016 |
| Publisher: | The Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| Journal Title: | PLoS ONE |
| Volume: | 11 |
| Issue: | 11 |
| Start Page: | e0166107 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1371/journal.pone.0166107 |
| Abstract: | The prediction of the lineage dynamics of influenza B viruses for the next season is one of the largest obstacles for constructing an appropriate influenza trivalent vaccine. Seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference between the two major influenza B lineages make the lineage dynamics complicated. Here we construct a parsimonious model describing the lineage dynamics while taking into account seasonal fluctuation of transmissibility and epidemiological interference. Using this model we estimated the epidemiological and evolutional parameters with the time-series data of the lineage specific isolates in Japan from the 2010-2011 season to the 2014-2015 season. The basic reproduction number is similar between Victoria and Yamagata, with a minimum value during one year as 0.82 (95% highest posterior density (HPD): 0.77-0.87) for the Yamagata and 0.83 (95% HPD: 0.74-0.92) for Victoria, the amplitude of seasonal variation of the basic reproduction number is 0.77 (95% HPD: 0.66-0.87) for Yamagata and 1.05 (95% HPD: 0.89-1.02) for Victoria. The duration for which the acquired immunity is effective against infection by the Yamagata lineage is shorter than the acquired immunity for Victoria, 424.1days (95% HPD: 317.4-561.5days). The reduction rate of susceptibility due to immune cross-reaction is 0.51 (95% HPD: 0.084-0.92) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Yamagata against the infection with Victoria and 0.62 (95% HPD: 0.42-0.80) for the immunity obtained from the infection with Victoria against the infection with Yamagata. Using estimated parameters, we predicted the dominant lineage in 2015-2016 season. The accuracy of this prediction is 68.8% if the emergence timings of the two lineages are known and 61.4% if the emergence timings are unknown. Estimated seasonal variation of the lineage specific reproduction number can narrow down the range of emergence timing, with an accuracy of 64.6% if the emergence times are assumed to be the time at which the estimated reproduction number exceeds one. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/64203 |
| Appears in Collections: | 人獣共通感染症国際共同研究所 (International Institute for Zoonosis Control) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 大森 亮介
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