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Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016

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タイトル: Estimating the subcritical transmissibility of the Zika outbreak in the State of Florida, USA, 2016
著者: Dinh, Linh 著作を一覧する
Chowell, Gerardo 著作を一覧する
Mizumoto, Kenji 著作を一覧する
Nishiura, Hiroshi 著作を一覧する
キーワード: Prediction
Zika virus
Epidemic
Mathematical model
Basic reproduction number
発行日: 2016年11月 9日
出版者: BioMed Central
誌名: Theoretical biology and medical modelling
巻: 13
開始ページ: 20
出版社 DOI: 10.1186/s12976-016-0046-1
抄録: Background: Florida State has reported autochthonous transmission of Zika virus since late July 2016. Here we assessed the transmissibility associated with the outbreak and generated a short-term forecast. Methods: Time-dependent dynamics of imported cases reported in the state of Florida was approximated by a logistic growth equation. We estimated the reproduction number using the renewal equation in order to predict the incidence of local cases arising from both local and imported primary cases. Using a bootstrap method together with the logistic and renewal equations, a short-term forecast of local and imported cases was carried out. Results: The reproduction number was estimated at 0.16 (95 % Confidence Interval: 0.13, 0.19). Employing the logistic equation to capture a drastic decline in the number of imported cases expected through the course of 2016, together with the low estimate of the local reproduction number in Florida, the expected number of local reported cases was demonstrated to show an evident declining trend for the remainder of 2016. Conclusions: The risk of local transmission in the state of Florida is predicted to dramatically decline by the end of 2016.
資料タイプ: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/64316
出現コレクション:雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

提供者: 西浦 博

 

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