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Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017 : a real time forecasting

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Title: Transmission dynamics of cholera in Yemen, 2017 : a real time forecasting
Authors: Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Tsuzuki, Shinya Browse this author
Yuan, Baoyin Browse this author
Yamaguchi, Takayuki Browse this author
Asai, Yusuke Browse this author
Keywords: Vibrio cholerae
Issue Date: 26-Jul-2017
Publisher: BioMed Central
Journal Title: Theoretical biology and medical modelling
Volume: 14
Start Page: 14
Publisher DOI: 10.1186/s12976-017-0061-x
Abstract: Background: A large epidemic of cholera, caused by Vibrio cholerae, serotype Ogawa, has been ongoing in Yemen, 2017. To improve the situation awareness, the present study aimed to forecast the cholera epidemic, explicitly addressing the reporting delay and ascertainment bias. Methods: Using weekly incidence of suspected cases, updated as a revised epidemic curve every week, the reporting delay was explicitly incorporated into the estimation model. Using the weekly case fatality risk as calculated by the World Health Organization, ascertainment bias was adjusted, enabling us to parameterize the family of logistic curves (i.e., logistic and generalized logistic models) for describing the unbiased incidence in 2017. Results: The cumulative incidence at the end of the epidemic, was estimated at 790,778 (95% CI: 700,495, 914,442) cases and 767,029 (95% CI: 690,877, 871,671) cases, respectively, by using logistic and generalized logistic models. It was also estimated that we have just passed through the epidemic peak by week 26, 2017. From week 27 onwards, the weekly incidence was predicted to decrease. Conclusions: Cholera epidemic in Yemen, 2017 was predicted to soon start to decrease. If the weekly incidence is reported in the up-to-the-minute manner and updated in later weeks, not a single data point but the entire epidemic curve must be precisely updated.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 西浦 博

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