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The Role of Migration in Maintaining the Transmission of Avian Influenza in Waterfowl : A Multisite Multispecies Transmission Model along East Asian-Australian Flyway
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| Title: | The Role of Migration in Maintaining the Transmission of Avian Influenza in Waterfowl : A Multisite Multispecies Transmission Model along East Asian-Australian Flyway |
| Authors: | Endo, Akira Browse this author | | Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Issue Date: | 26-Mar-2018 |
| Publisher: | Hindawi |
| Journal Title: | Canadian journal of infectious diseases & medical microbiology |
| Volume: | 2018 |
| Start Page: | 3420535 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1155/2018/3420535 |
| Abstract: | Background. Migratory waterfowl annually migrate over the continents along the routes known as flyways, serving as carriers of avian influenza virus across distant locations. Prevalence of influenza varies with species, and there are also geographical and temporal variations. However, the role of long-distance migration in multispecies transmission dynamics has yet to be understood. We constructed a mathematical model to capture the global dynamics of avian influenza, identifying species and locations that contribute to sustaining transmission. Methods. We devised a multisite, multispecies SIS (susceptible-infectious-susceptible) model, and estimated transmission rates within and between species in each geographical location from prevalence data. Parameters were directly sampled from posterior distribution under Bayesian inference framework. We then analyzed contribution of each species in each location to the global patterns of influenza transmission. Results. Transmission and migration parameters were estimated by Bayesian posterior sampling. The basic reproduction number was estimated at 1.1, slightly above the endemic threshold. Mallard was found to be the most important host with the highest transmission potential, and high-and middle-latitude regions appeared to act as hotspots of influenza transmission. The local reproduction number suggested that the prevalence of avian influenza in the Oceania region is dependent on the inflow of infected birds from other regions. Conclusion. Mallard exhibited the highest transmission rate among the species explored. Migration was suggested to be a key factor of the global prevalence of avian influenza, as transmission is locally sustainable only in the northern hemisphere, and the virus could be extinct in the Oceania region without migration. |
| Rights: | http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/70892 |
| Appears in Collections: | 医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 西浦 博
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