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Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas

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Title: Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas
Authors: Molinos, Jorge Garcia Browse this author
Takao, Shintaro Browse this author
Kumagai, Naoki H. Browse this author
Poloczanska, Elvira S. Browse this author
Burrows, Michael T. Browse this author
Fujii, Masahiko Browse this author
Yamano, Hiroya Browse this author
Keywords: climate analogues
climate change
ecological coherence
protected areas
Issue Date: Oct-2017
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Journal Title: Global change biology
Volume: 23
Issue: 10
Start Page: 4440
End Page: 4452
Publisher DOI: 10.1111/gcb.13665
PMID: 28211249
Abstract: Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change.
Description: There will be some minor editing differences between this version and the published one.
Rights: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Global Change Biology : Oct-2017, 23(10), pp.4440-4452, which has been published in final form at . This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
Type: article (author version)
Appears in Collections:北極域研究センター (Arctic Research Center) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles,etc)

Submitter: Garcia Molinos Jorge

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