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Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers >
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Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc >
Estimating the Asymptomatic Ratio of Norovirus Infection During Foodborne Outbreaks With Laboratory Testing in Japan
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| Title: | Estimating the Asymptomatic Ratio of Norovirus Infection During Foodborne Outbreaks With Laboratory Testing in Japan |
| Authors: | Miura, Fuminari Browse this author | | Matsuyama, Ryota Browse this author | | Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | asymptomatic ratio | | subclinical infection | | Caliciviridae | | Norwalk virus | | statistical estimation | | mathematical model |
| Issue Date: | 5-Sep-2018 |
| Publisher: | Japan Epidemiological Association |
| Journal Title: | Journal of epidemiology |
| Volume: | 28 |
| Issue: | 9 |
| Start Page: | 382 |
| End Page: | 387 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.2188/jea.JE20170040 |
| Abstract: | Background: Foodborne norovirus outbreak data in Japan from 2005-2006, involving virological surveillance of all symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals, were reanalyzed to estimate the asymptomatic ratio of norovirus infection along with the risk of infection and the probability of virus shedding. Methods: Employing a statistical model that is considered to capture the data-generating process of the outbreak and virus surveillance, maximum likelihood estimation of the asymptomatic ratio was implemented. Results: Assuming that all norovirus outbreaks (n = 55) were the result of random sampling from an identical distribution and ignoring genogroup and genotype specificities, the asymptomatic ratio was estimated at 32.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 27.7-36.7). Although not significant, separate estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of the GII.4 genotype appeared to be greater than other genotypes and was estimated at 40.7% (95% CI, 32.8-49.0). Conclusion: The present study offered the first explicit empirical estimates of the asymptomatic ratio of norovirus infection in natural infection settings. The estimate of about 30% was consistent with those derived from volunteer challenge studies. Practical difficulty in controlling GII.4 outbreaks was supported by the data, considering that a large estimate of the asymptomatic ratio was obtained for the GII.4 genotype. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/71872 |
| Appears in Collections: | 医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 西浦 博
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