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Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers >
Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine / Faculty of Veterinary Medicine >
Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc >
Can Machines Learn Respiratory Virus Epidemiology? : A Comparative Study of Likelihood-Free Methods for the Estimation of Epidemiological Dynamics
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| Title: | Can Machines Learn Respiratory Virus Epidemiology? : A Comparative Study of Likelihood-Free Methods for the Estimation of Epidemiological Dynamics |
| Authors: | Tessmer, Heidi L. Browse this author | | Ito, Kimihito Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Omori, Ryosuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | respiratory virus | | infectious disease epidemiology | | machine learning | | approximate Bayesian computation | | basic reproduction number | | mathematical model |
| Issue Date: | 2-Mar-2018 |
| Publisher: | Frontiers Media |
| Journal Title: | Frontiers in microbiology |
| Volume: | 9 |
| Start Page: | 343 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.3389/fmicb.2018.00343 |
| Abstract: | To estimate and predict the transmission dynamics of respiratory viruses, the estimation of the basic reproduction number, R-0, is essential. Recently, approximate Bayesian computation methods have been used as likelihood free methods to estimate epidemiological model parameters, particularly R-0. In this paper, we explore various machine learning approaches, the multi-layer perceptron, convolutional neural network, and long-short term memory, to learn and estimate the parameters. Further, we compare the accuracy of the estimates and time requirements for machine learning and the approximate Bayesian computation methods on both simulated and real-world epidemiological data from outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, mumps, and measles. We find that the machine learning approaches can be verified and tested faster than the approximate Bayesian computation method, but that the approximate Bayesian computation method is more robust across different datasets. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/72139 |
| Appears in Collections: | 獣医学院・獣医学研究院 (Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine / Faculty of Veterinary Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 大森 亮介
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