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Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers >
Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine >
Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc >
Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan : a social contact survey
This item is licensed under:Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
| Title: | Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan : a social contact survey |
| Authors: | Munasinghe, Lankeshwara Browse this author | | Asai, Yusuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB | | Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | Epidemic | | Epidemiological model | | Mathematical model | | Cumulative incidence | | Influenza |
| Issue Date: | 20-Mar-2019 |
| Publisher: | BioMed Central |
| Journal Title: | Theoretical biology and medical modelling |
| Volume: | 16 |
| Start Page: | 6 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8 |
| PMID: | 30890153 |
| Abstract: | BackgroundSocial contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza.MethodsAn internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R-0.ResultsIn total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R-0 was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49).ConclusionsSurvey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/73835 |
| Appears in Collections: | 医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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Submitter: 西浦 博
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