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Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan : a social contact survey

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Title: Quantifying heterogeneous contact patterns in Japan : a social contact survey
Authors: Munasinghe, Lankeshwara Browse this author
Asai, Yusuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Nishiura, Hiroshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: Epidemic
Epidemiological model
Mathematical model
Cumulative incidence
Issue Date: 20-Mar-2019
Publisher: BioMed Central
Journal Title: Theoretical biology and medical modelling
Volume: 16
Start Page: 6
Publisher DOI: 10.1186/s12976-019-0102-8
PMID: 30890153
Abstract: BackgroundSocial contact surveys can greatly help in quantifying the heterogeneous patterns of infectious disease transmission. The present study aimed to conduct a contact survey in Japan, offering estimates of contact by age and location and validating a social contact matrix using a seroepidemiological dataset of influenza.MethodsAn internet-based questionnaire survey was conducted, covering all 47 prefectures in Japan and including a total of 1476 households. The social contact matrix was quantified assuming reciprocity and using the maximum likelihood method. By imposing several parametric assumptions for the next-generation matrix, the empirical seroepidemiological data of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 was analysed and we estimated the basic reproduction number, R-0.ResultsIn total, the reported number of contacts on weekdays was 10,682 whereas that on weekend days was 8867. Strong age-dependent assortativity was identified. Forty percent of weekday contacts took place at schools or workplaces, but that declined to 14% on weekends. Accounting for the age-dependent heterogeneity with the known social contact matrix, the minimum value of the Akaike information criterion was obtained and R-0 was estimated at 1.45 (95% confidence interval: 1.42, 1.49).ConclusionsSurvey datasets will be useful for parameterizing the heterogeneous transmission model of various directly transmitted infectious diseases in Japan. Age-dependent assortativity, especially among children, along with numerous contacts in school settings on weekdays implies the potential effectiveness of school closure.
Type: article
Appears in Collections:医学院・医学研究院 (Graduate School of Medicine / Faculty of Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 西浦 博

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