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Recent Breakdown of the Seasonal Linkage between the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode and Summer Northern Annular Mode

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Title: Recent Breakdown of the Seasonal Linkage between the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation/Northern Annular Mode and Summer Northern Annular Mode
Authors: Yamazaki, Koji Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Ogi, Masayo Browse this author
Tachibana, Yoshihiro Browse this author
Nakamura, Tetsu Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Oshima, Kazuhiro Browse this author
Keywords: Arctic Oscillation
Atmosphere-ocean interaction
Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
Climate prediction
Decadal variability
North Atlantic Oscillation
Issue Date: Jan-2019
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Journal Title: Journal of Climate
Volume: 32
Issue: 2
Start Page: 591
End Page: 605
Publisher DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0820.1
Abstract: The summer northern annular mode (NAM) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/winter NAM have a positive correlation from the mid-1960s to the 1980s. Namely, when the winter NAO/NAM is in a positive phase, the following summer NAM tended to be in a positive phase. During the period from the mid-1960s to the 1980s, the NAO/NAM signals extended to the stratosphere in winter. Also, the lower-tropospheric warm anomaly over northern Eurasia in winter associated with the positive phase of NAO/NAM continued into spring. In summer, the annular anomalies in the temperature and 500-hPa height fields appeared, and the high-latitude westerly wind was enhanced following the winter positive NAO/NAM. However, after circa 1990, the seasonal linkage was broken (i.e., the winter-to-summer correlation became insignificant). The stratospheric signal in the winter NAO/NAM became weak and summer signals associated with the winter NAO/NAM almost disappeared. Seasonal evolutions of atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the winter NAO are examined for an early good-linkage period and a recent poor-linkage period. We discuss the possible causes of the linkage breakdown such as stratospheric ozone, North Atlantic SST, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, besides chaotic internal variability in the climate system. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model suggest that the ocean and/or sea ice with interseasonal memories possibly cause the linkage, besides large internal variability through which the linkage can take place by chance.
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Type: article
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 山崎 孝治

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