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Jet-Precipitation Relation and Future Change of the Mei-Yu-Baiu Rainband and Subtropical Jet in CMIP5 Coupled GCM Simulations

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Title: Jet-Precipitation Relation and Future Change of the Mei-Yu-Baiu Rainband and Subtropical Jet in CMIP5 Coupled GCM Simulations
Authors: Horinouchi, Takeshi Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Matsumura, Shinji Browse this author
Ose, Tomoaki Browse this author
Takayabu, Yukari N. Browse this author
Keywords: Asia
Pacific Ocean
Synoptic climatology
Climate variability
Coupled models
Issue Date: Apr-2019
Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Journal Title: Journal of Climate
Volume: 32
Issue: 8
Start Page: 2247
End Page: 2259
Publisher DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0426.1
Abstract: Through extensive modeling efforts, it has been established that the ongoing global warming will increase the overall precipitation associated with the East Asian summer monsoon, but the future change of its spatial distribution has not reached a consensus. In this study, meridional shifts of the mei-yu-baiu rainband are studied in association with the subtropical jet by using outputs from atmosphere-ocean coupled climate models provided by CMIP5. The models reproduce observed associations between the jet and precipitation over wide time scales from synoptic to interannual. The same relation is found in intermodel differences in simulated climatology, so that the meridional locations of the jet and baiu precipitation are positively correlated. The multimodel-mean projection suggests that the both are shifted southward by the late twenty-first century. This shift is not inconsistent with the projected tropical expansion, not only because the change is local but also because the projected tropical expansion occurs mainly in the Southern Hemisphere. No significant future change in the continental mei-yu precipitation location is identified, which might be because the jet change is weak there. For comparison, the summertime Atlantic jet position, which shifts northward, is investigated briefly. This study suggests that the future change of the subtropical jet is an important aspect to investigate possible future changes of the baiu rainband, and it prompts further studies including the role of the ocean.
Rights: © Copyright 2019.4.1 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a website or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. All AMS journals and monograph publications are registered with the Copyright Clearance Center ( Questions about permission to use materials for which AMS holds the copyright can also be directed to the AMS Permissions Officer at Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy statement, available on the AMS website (
Type: article
Appears in Collections:環境科学院・地球環境科学研究院 (Graduate School of Environmental Science / Faculty of Environmental Earth Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

Submitter: 堀之内 武

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