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Comparative simulations of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under simplified Paris Agreement scenarios with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM

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Title: Comparative simulations of the evolution of the Greenland ice sheet under simplified Paris Agreement scenarios with the models SICOPOLIS and ISSM
Authors: Rückamp, Martin Browse this author
Greve, Ralf Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Humbert, Angelika Browse this author
Keywords: Greenland ice sheet
Paris Agreement
Sea level rise
Ice sheet modelling
Uncertainty assessment
Issue Date: Sep-2019
Publisher: Elsevier
Journal Title: Polar Science
Volume: 21
Start Page: 14
End Page: 25
Publisher DOI: 10.1016/j.polar.2018.12.003
Abstract: Projections of the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise comprise uncertainties that arise from the imposed climate forcing and from the underlying mathematical and numerical description used by ice flow models. Here, we present a comparative modelling study with the models SICOPOLIS, using the shallow ice approximation (SIA) on a structured grid, and ISSM, using a higher-order (HO) approximation of the Stokes equation on an unstructured grid. Starting from a paleoclimatic spin-up produced by SICOPOLIS, the models are forced with two different, simplified warming scenarios based on RCP2.6 projections from climate models, which are in line with the limit of global warming negotiated for the Paris Agreement. ISSM/HO produces lower flow speeds at the glacier termini, but more acceleration in narrow outlet glaciers compared to SICOPOLIS/SIA. This leads to a larger elevation reduction for ISSM/HO, and thus a positive feedback on the surface mass balance (with that of ISSM/HO becoming ∼50 Gt a−1 more negative). Across the two models and scenarios, the projected mass loss by 2300 is ∼62–88 mm sea level equivalent.
Rights: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/75818
Appears in Collections:低温科学研究所 (Institute of Low Temperature Science) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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