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Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers >
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Epidemic dynamics with a time-varying susceptibility due to repeated infections
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| Title: | Epidemic dynamics with a time-varying susceptibility due to repeated infections |
| Authors: | Nakata, Yukihiko Browse this author | | Omori, Ryosuke Browse this author →KAKEN DB |
| Keywords: | Epidemic model | | reinfection threshold | | heterogeneous susceptibility | | delayed outbreak |
| Issue Date: | 1-Jan-2019 |
| Publisher: | Taylor & Francis |
| Journal Title: | Journal of biological dynamics |
| Volume: | 13 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Start Page: | 567 |
| End Page: | 585 |
| Publisher DOI: | 10.1080/17513758.2019.1643043 |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we consider the impact of heterogeneous susceptibility on disease transmission dynamics, using a simple mathematical model formulated by a system of ordinary differential equations. Our model describes a time-varying immunity level, which is enhanced by reinfection and diminished by waning immunity. Through mathematical analysis, we show that unexpected outbreaks, called delayed outbreaks, occur even when the basic reproduction number is less than one. A reallocation of susceptibility at the individual level, by repeated infections, in the host population induces delayed outbreaks. |
| Rights: | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ |
| Type: | article |
| URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2115/76056 |
| Appears in Collections: | 獣医学院・獣医学研究院 (Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine / Faculty of Veterinary Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
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