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Evaluation of control measures for bovine viral diarrhea implemented in Nemuro District, Hokkaido, Japan, using a scenario tree model

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Title: Evaluation of control measures for bovine viral diarrhea implemented in Nemuro District, Hokkaido, Japan, using a scenario tree model
Authors: Isoda, Norikazu Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Asano, Akihiro Browse this author
Ichijo, Michiru Browse this author
Wakamori, Shiho Browse this author
Ohno, Hiroshi Browse this author
Sato, Kazuhiko Browse this author
Okamoto, Hirokazu Browse this author
Nakao, Shigeru Browse this author
Kato, Hajime Browse this author
Saito, Kazuma Browse this author
Ito, Naoki Browse this author
Usui, Akira Browse this author
Takayama, Hiroaki Browse this author
Sakoda, Yoshihiro Browse this author →KAKEN DB
Keywords: BVD
epidemiology
scenario tree analysis
Issue Date: Jul-2017
Publisher: The Japanese Society of Veterinary Science
Journal Title: Journal of Veterinary Medical Science
Volume: 79
Issue: 7
Start Page: 1172
End Page: 1181
Publisher DOI: 10.1292/jvms.17-0108
PMID: 28539533
Abstract: A scenario tree model was developed to propose efficient bovine viral diarrhea (BVD) control measures. The model used field data in eastern Hokkaido where the risk of BVDV infection in cattle has been reduced by an eradication program including mass vaccination, individual tests prior to communal pasture grazing, herd screening tests using bulk milk, and outbreak investigations of newly infected herds. These four activities were then used as hypothesized control measures in the simulation. In each simulation, the numbers of cattle infected persistently and transiently with BVDV detected by clinical manifestations and diagnosis tests and of missed by all of the diagnosis tests were calculated, and the numbers were used as indicators to be compared for the efficacy of the control measures. The model outputs indicated that the adoption of mass vaccination decreased the number of missed BVD cattle, although it did not increase the number of detected BVD cattle. Under implementation of mass vaccination, the efficacy of individual tests on selected 20% of the young and adult cattle was equal to that of the herd screening test performed in all the herds. When the virus prevalence or the number of sensitive animals becomes low, the efficacy of herd screening test was superior to one of individual tests. Considering the model outputs together, the scenario tree model developed in the present study was useful to compare the efficacy of the control measures for BVD.
Rights: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Type: article
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2115/76371
Appears in Collections:獣医学院・獣医学研究院 (Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine / Faculty of Veterinary Medicine) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)
国際連携研究教育局 : GI-CoRE (Global Institution for Collaborative Research and Education : GI-CoRE) > 雑誌発表論文等 (Peer-reviewed Journal Articles, etc)

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